More than 1.28 million Tennessee voters cast their 2026 midterm ballots during early voting, outpacing the 2022 midterm early voting turnout by 45%. But the total fell about 98,000 votes short of equalling early voting turnout for the 2018 midterms.
All counties except Johnson recorded more early votes cast than in 2022, according to data collected by the Tennessee Secretary of State’s office.
Early voting turnout in Shelby and Williamson counties — both key to the outcome of congressional races — fell just short of 2018, when Democrats performed their best statewide in any election since 2006 (though Democratic candidates failed to flip any Congressional seats).
Turnout in West and Middle Tennessee could be particularly influential on the outcome of congressional races since the Tennessee legislature redrew district maps in May to give Republican candidates better odds.
U.S. House District 9, which historically has included the majority of Memphis, now stretches from the Memphis airport along Tennessee’s southern border and then up to encompass a portion of Williamson County. Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson is fighting to keep the seat blue despite the new boundaries against Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor.
Early voting turnout for 9th district counties was a mixed bag compared to 2018. The district now includes portions of Shelby, Fayette, Williamson, Maury counties, a small sliver of Rutherford County and several rural counties.
Shelby County tallied 183,896 early votes, falling 2.5% behind 2018’s turnout (and up over 52% from 2022). Fayette County exceeded 2018’s turnout by 0.45% with 9,593 early votes. Williamson, a reliably Republican stronghold, logged 73,450 votes this year, 1.4% behind 2018. Maury County outpaced 2018 by 1.2% with 19,870 votes, and Rutherford recorded 2.5% more votes than in 2018 with 67,625.
Moore and Bedford counties both came out slightly ahead of 2018 early voting turnout. But the rest of the district — Hardeman, McNairy, Hardin, Wayne, Lawrence, Giles, Lincoln and Marshall counties — fell behind.
The new 5th congressional district includes parts of Shelby, Tipton, Montgomery, Maury and Williamson counties in addition to rural Northwest and Middle Tennessee counties.
Montgomery County reported a 4.8% bump up from 2018 early voting turnout with 32,636 votes. But the district’s rural counties lagged 2018 from anywhere between 2% to 23.5%.
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